Another Day at the ice Capades

Well, the first day of Spring brought.....a snowstorm. Gotta love Indiana. As I drove across Indiana and into Ohio I saw lots of folks in the ditch or median. I even got a nice little scare when a U-Haul smacked the guardrail on the other side and then came across the median (fortunately he got it stopped just before he went English on me). That got me to thinking, my company just started using simulators to train drivers how to deal with skids, blowouts and such (stuff that isn't safe or economical to practice in real life), wouldn't it make sense to include such training in drivers ed classes? Either set up a central lab for the state and each school could take a one day field trip or use mobile labs and visit each school in the state. Of course while they're at it they should slip in a module about how to drive around trucks, but that's another story.

An act of war?

ABC News: Iraq weapons: made in Iran?

March 6, 2006 — U.S. military and intelligence officials tell ABC News that they have caught shipments of deadly new bombs at the Iran-Iraq border.

They are a very nasty piece of business, capable of penetrating U.S. troops' strongest armor.

What the United States says links them to Iran are tell-tale manufacturing signatures — certain types of machine-shop welds and material indicating they are built by the same bomb factory.

"The signature is the same because they are exactly the same in production," says explosives expert Kevin Barry. "So it's the same make and model."

U.S. officials say roadside bomb attacks against American forces in Iraq have become much more deadly as more and more of the Iran-designed and Iran-produced bombs have been smuggled in from the country since last October.

So what are we going to do about it? Iran seems to be counting on its ability to incite an uprising in the Shiite south and its ability to shut down a massive portion of the world's oil flows to deter us from responding to this and to their rapid nuclear buildup. At some point in the not too distant future we are going to have to fish or cut bait. a) Either bail out of Iraq and let a nuclear armed Iran set up a Islamofascist thugocracy in Iraq, b) bail out of Iraq and then bomb the Iranians into the stone age and then have two countries in disarray (and not pumping oil) for the foreseeable future [which would sure make our good pals Hugo Chavez and the House of Saud happy]), or c) perhaps the worst of the alternatives try to hold Iraq and invade Iran (while praying that China and North Korea behave while we are thoroughly tied down for a decade) which may have an end result not far removed from a or b.

(h/t Patterico

Is the U.S. Heavy Truck market going the way of Europe?

MergerTalk: US truck engine makers near end of road?

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Cummins Inc. (CMI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the two big U.S. diesel engine manufacturers, are at a crossroads, bankers say.

The dilemma: To keep their heavy-duty truck engine operations rolling, will they need to align themselves more closely with a single domestic truck maker?

In Europe, the top manufacturers of heavy-duty trucks -- Sweden's Volvo Group, and Germany's DaimlerChrysler and MAN AG -- are vertically integrated, producing both the chassis and engine.

But in North America the industry is divided.

The European players, Volvo and DaimlerChrysler's Freightliner unit, have tried in recent years to impose their vertical template on the marketplace, encouraging customers accustomed to being able to order their trucks with outsiders' engines in them to go with in-house drivetrains instead.

But the two other big manufacturers, Bellevue, Washington-based Paccar Inc. (PCAR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Warrenville, Illinois-based Navistar (NAV.N: Quote, Profile, Research) -- continue to outsource their so-called Class 8 heavy-duty engines, primarily to Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar and Columbus, Indiana-based Cummins.

But a big change -- the kind that drives deal-making -- is afoot. The wheels were set in motion in late 2004, when Navistar, Cummins' key customer, announced plans to develop a new big-bore engine with MAN.

When Navistar announced the deal, says one banker, "it sent shivers through the Cummins organization."

PACCAR makes its own engines for the European market (it owns DAF, Leyland, and Foden in Europe as well as Kenworth and Peterbilt here in the U.S.), so they have a potential Euro source as well. Cummins has more to worry about because Caterpillar engines are seen as a premium product, so drivers and owners would probably change truck brands to have a CAT motor. So any maker that chose to drop CAT would have some lost sales and perhaps many lost sales for Peterbilt, which has a "Premium truck" image. Cummins motors are more fuel efficient but don't have as devoted of a following. Right now they are the sensible fuel economy and cost choice in an IH, Kenworth, or Pete; and an alternative to the expensive to maintain Volvo motor in a Volvo. Already the market is much more fenced off than the 60s to the 90s where at most manufacturers buyers could choose Cat, Cummins or Detroit power. Detroit diesel in a typical bit of short term thinking was sold off by GM right after developing the Series 60 engine, the best fleet motor on the market, to Penske. A few years later Penske sold Detroit to DaimlerChrysler and all of the manufacturers outside the DC portfolio (Freightliner, Western Star and Sterling [formerly Ford's heavy truck unit]) dropped Detroit engines from their options list.

Until the Euro emissions standards catch up with the US 2010 standard though I don't see PACCAR moving to bring their euro product here. IF they did, it would probably slot in as the standard motor in place of Cummins with Cat motors remaining the "step up" option. Navistar seems to be struggling right now so it is hard to tell how their joint venture will shake out. Americans have traditionally resisted European diesels because of high parts costs and unfamiliarity (DC also offers Mercedes diesels in their heavy truck products but they haven't found a large following),

What a nightmare

Last weekend went on the annual shopping spree, I had planned to buy a couple of Mac minis (one for me and one for the wifey) and make the Sawtooth the kids computer and sending the Radius system 100 (which is very ready) to retirement. Get to the store, see a sonnet 1.2 Ghz G4 upgrade and a sweet Radeon, decide to upgrade the G4 and buy one mini for the wifey. The installation was mostly painless (though I don't know how on earth Sonnet thinks that a "medium" screwdriver will work, needed a pretty fine one to get to the screws in the heat sink). Start the machine up, lots of zoom zoom. Big Smile. Insert SimCity 4, start playing, go about half an hour and kernel panic, bad word, bad word, bad word. Restart and instant kernel panic. Let it cool off then double check the installation. Download the latest ROM for the vid card and flash it, download the latest drivers, check Sonnet's site, already have the latest software. Since it's mainly flaking out in 3D games (takes about an hour in normal operation, 20-30 minutes in Simcity 4, 2-3 minutes in 4x4 evo 2) pull the Radeon 9800 and reinstall the Rage 128 :-( . Still no go, Use a spare partition and do a clean install of the OS. give it another try. Get a black screen lock up. Pull the Sonnet and am back to OS X's no stability (of course I'm not playing many 3D games now). So I'm taking the Sonnet and the Radeon (nothing I need a 9800 for is going to work with a 400 Mhz G4) back monday and going back to plan "a" and buying another mini.

A coming storm for trucking?

Braun Consulting:FedEx ground vs. UPS: Two Worldviews

Legally, independent contractors can't be directly supervised, supplied with workspace or tools, or otherwise treated like employees. FedEx Ground has successfully defended its contractor system from several legal challenges, but in July a California judge ruled that certain contract workers should be treated as employees.

Filed as a state wage and hour violation case by three contract drivers in California, the suit was expanded to a state class-action suit.

In the California case L.A. County Superior Court Judge Howard J. Schwab issued a 23-page ruling on July 26th, 2004. He ruled that those contractors with multiple routes were legitimate contractors who operate more like businesses than employees. But he decided that single-route contractors should be classified as employees.

The judge termed a single-route contract as a "Single Work Area".

He noted that the contractors have only one client, FedEx Ground. They must drive trucks with company logos, wear uniforms with company logos, and report daily to company distribution hubs. They attend regular briefings on safety and company issues and their contracts can be terminated for any number of infractions. This means that in effect they can be fired for failing to follow company policies.

Some of the more interesting aspects of the judges ruling follow:

"A close reading of the Operating Agreement, which all SWAs (Single Work Area, or Single-route contractors) must sign in order to be able to work for FedEx Ground, is comprised primarily of platitudes and guidelines."

"For all practical purposes, by the nature of their work, the SWAs are engaged in the exclusive and full-time pickup and delivery service for FedEx Ground and are identified as such. FedEx Ground also provides business cards for the SWAs with its logo."

"Of importance to the court is the clear evidence that SWAs are totally integrated into the FedEx Ground operation...The SWAs wear required uniforms and drive specifically mandated FedEx Ground logo-laden trucks. The SWAs are long term in years of service..."

"Most important of all, the court finds that the work of the SWAs is essential for FedEx Ground's core operation, the pickup and delivery of packages. If lightning were to strike so that there were to be no FedEx Ground, there would in fact be nothing left for the SWAs to do and they suddenly would be bereft of business."

"The court finds that in entering the relationship, FedEx Ground purposely created controls of an employment nature, hoping that in spite of those strictures, the status would still be seen and considered to be that of an independent contractor."

FedEx "respectfully disagreed" with the ruling. If the ruling holds up they will either have to convert single-route contractors into California employees or change the relationship to comply with the less restrictive control associated with an independent contractor.

This is most directly applicable to independent contractors in the courier industry, but there have been efforts to have port truck drivers considered employees. In OTR trucking there are three basic categories of driver. A company driver operates a company supplied truck pulling loads as directed by the company. He is not responsible for the operations costs of the truck. Some company drivers may have leeway as to what routes to run or even to choose which of the company's loads they will haul but the company has the prerogative to totally control the truck and driver. An independent contractor provides a tractor but operates exclusively for one employer. They will usually have a company truck number and the employer name and logo on their truck. By law, liability insurance is provided by the carrier (at leas Generally they are paid a certain per mile or percentage rate "to the truck" out of which they pay operating expenses and whatever is left over is their earnings. They have more control usually over the operation of the truck, but can still be fairly tightly supervised by the company. In theory though, the independent contractor can choose to quit his current company, take his tractor, and go to work for a different company so he has some leverage if the company makes onerous demands . An owner operator owns their own unit, generally both the tractor and trailer. They contract directly with shippers to haul freight, usually for a fixed dollar amount per load. They may haul loads for other motor carriers on an occasional basis. They run their own independent business, billing customers and providing their own operating authority and insurance.
The lines between the different categories get blurred sometimes. An individual may own multiple trucks which are leased to a carrier, in effect an independent contractor who is also an employer. Lease purchase plans may result in an independent contractor with very little freedom.
Many carriers use independent contractors to cut costs or to fill driving slots they cannot fill with company drivers. Independent contractors often operate trucks that are more expensive and less fuel efficient than fleet trucks (though much more attractive and comfortable).
So if independent contractors must be recategorized as employees then carriers will have to either accept the new status quo, only deal with owner operators, or only deal with company drivers. If the carriers have to pay wages plus operating costs they would be more inclined to restrict what types of tractors independent contractors may purchase as well as operational details such as how fast the truck is governed at, how many out of route miles, and out of route miles the truck runs.

Past returns do not guarantee future results

Stephen Roach:The Symbiosis Trap

The broad consensus of financial market participants has come to the conclusion that there is a new symbiosis between America’s record-setting external deficit and those willing to fund it. China is typically singled out as the most willing participant in the “symbiosis trade” — the arrangement whereby the US buys goods made in China in exchange for China’s willingness to buy bonds printed in Washington. On the surface, this seems like a terrific deal for both — providing American consumers with the interest rate subsidy needed to sustain wealth- and debt-dependent spending and helping China limit an appreciation in its currency that might otherwise hamper its export prowess. Because this implicit contract has enabled China to keep its currency tightly aligned with the US dollar, many have also referred to the new symbiosis as a “Bretton Woods II” regime — the modern-day sequel to the dollar-based international financial architecture that was adopted in the aftermath of World War II. Advocates of this view conclude that since it is in both parties’ best interests to perpetuate the symbiosis, there is no reason why it should change. With net foreign purchases of long-term US securities averaging $114 billion in September and October 2005, the latest facts are certainly not getting in the way of that logic.

I worry, however, that the sustainability of the symbiosis trade is predicated on a very dangerous ex post rationalization of global imbalances. As was the case in the midst of recent bubbles in equities, bonds, credit, and property, there are important kernels of truth to the notion of a new international symbiosis. The increased trade and capital flows that stem from the cross-border connectivity of globalization create a growing sense of co-dependence in the global economy. The US dollar’s role as a reserve currency adds confidence to the notion of an expanded dollar bloc. But at the end of the day, I do not believe that this arrangement is either desirable or sustainable from the perspective of either of the two main protagonists in the new symbiosis — China or the United States.
.......
The risks are equally disturbing from America’s point of view. To the extent that foreign purchases of dollar-denominated assets represent the functional equivalent of a subsidy to US interest rates, asset markets enjoy artificial valuation support. The result is a surge in housing values that many Americans now perceive to be a new and permanent source of saving. This, in turn, has had a profound impact in reshaping saving and spending strategies of US consumers. In essence, the income-based consumption models of yesteryear have been replaced by asset-driven frameworks. The repercussions of this transformation are profound: The income-based personal saving rate has plunged deeper into negative territory than at any point since 1933. At the same time, US consumers can only create newfound purchasing power by extracting equity from an ever-expanding housing stock. This is where debt enters the equation — in effect, the cost of equity extraction. The overall household sector debt ratio has been pushed up by 20 percentage points of GDP over the past five years — equal to the gain in the preceding 20 years; moreover, reflecting this overhang in the outstanding stock of indebtedness, US household sector debt-service burdens have risen to record highs — even in the context of an unusually low interest rate climate. The result is unprecedented consumer vulnerability on both the saving and debt fronts.

“So what!” retorts the symbiosis crowd. After all, these are precisely the excesses — both for China and the US — that we in the rebalancing crowd have been bemoaning for years. Fair point. Moreover, a year ago, when there were widespread concerns over global imbalances, the dollar rose instead of fell — and those concerns lost credibility. As long as the world is willing to finance America’s saving shortfall, goes the argument, there is no reason to worry about sustainability. This, in my view, is the essence of the “symbiosis trap.” The consensus has been lulled into a false sense of security — believing that imbalances will remain a non-issue for the global economy and world financial markets.
........
The case for global rebalancing was dealt a tough blow in 2005. The dollar’s surprising appreciation led many to believe that financial markets are perfectly capable of coping with massive external imbalances. In my view, that coping mechanism has led to a false sense of complacency that could well be tested in 2006. In particular, a further deterioration of global imbalances — more likely than not over the next year — could well have adverse consequences for already-extended US and Chinese economies. The result could be a sharp decline in the dollar and related upward pressures on US real interest rates — developments that would take generally complacent investors by surprise. I have long been wary of new theories that spring up to explain away old problems. That was the problem with the so-called new paradigm thinking of the late 1990s. And it could well be the ultimate peril of the symbiosis trap.

To rip off the Matrix it will last as long as it can. Folks are spent out, real wages have been flat (and for many families have been falling) interest rates have already started to creep up. If the worst happens the folks with adjustable rate mortgages will face skyrocketing payments as well as being upside down on the note due to falling home prices. Families already living "the American dream" on borrowed money will be in the fight of their life and the folks speculating with borrowed money will loose their shirts. The bankruptcy exit is barred, lenders will not be in the mood to lend over 100% of value to refi on a fixed rate, and there will be more sellers than buyers. The coasts will be hardest hit but everyone will feel the drag on the economy. Such a recession may not have an identifiable trigger like a stock market crash rather a slowly rising flood of bankruptcy and foreclosure until a tipping point is reached and it becomes page one news.

In other news oil is lighter than water

The Big Picture: Laughing at Laffer

[quoting from the New York Times Dan Altman]
"The author of the analysis, Ben Page, estimates how an across-the-board cut in income tax rates could generate higher levels of economic activity, potentially replacing lost tax revenue. The theory behind these feedback effects is well worn: putting money back into taxpayers' pockets will let them spend more and save more, raising demand for goods and services and helping companies to invest for the future.

Mr. Page assumes that government spending will continue as planned for a decade after the tax cuts. He also creates different possibilities based on various assumptions about people's foresight, the mobility of capital and the ways in which the federal government might make up for the lost revenue when the decade is up - either by cutting spending or by raising taxes again. Finally, he compares the budget office's figures to those of two private forecasting firms, Global Insight and Macroeconomic Advisers.
......
The recent analysis by Mr. Page at the Congressional Budget Office dismisses the idea that tax cuts may actually improve the government's fiscal situation. Even in his most generous scenario, only 28 percent of lost tax revenue is recouped over a 10-year period. The United States, it seems, is firmly planted on the left side of the Laffer Curve.

Note this is more than mere theory. Looking at the most recent tax cuts and their impact on revenues, we learn that recent experience corroborates this prediction:

"In the second quarter of 2001, just before the first of President Bush's tax cuts took effect, federal receipts from personal taxes accounted for 10.3 percent of the economy. By the end of the post-recession slump, receipts had dropped to 6.4 percent. But in the third quarter of 2005, with the economy booming, they were still under 7.5 percent - an enormous difference. In dollar terms, federal receipts from personal income taxes, at $802 billion in 2004, are still lower than they were in 1998 ($826 billion) and much lower than in 2001 ($994 billion)."

The bad news may be even worse. Once a shortfall begins, the government does what governments always do -- Borrow more:

"Shortfalls in revenue cause the government to borrow more, so money intended for other purposes must be paid as interest instead. Even in Mr. Page's most generous picture, the federal government would probably have to pay an extra $200 billion in interest over the decade covered by his analysis."

What is the exact nature of the trade off? Mr. Page estimates that gross national product gains about 1% in exchange for higher deficits.

In other words, Supply Side Tax Cuts "borrow" growth.

Of course the "starve the beast" folk would perhaps claim that the problem is that the theory is executed incorrectly since the assumption is that spending would remain constant for 10 years where in their perfect world spending would be cut in tandem with taxes. And in a "perfect" balanced budget world pols could choose to increase taxes and increase services, to hold the taxes and services steady, or to decrease both. Higher taxes make the folks that pay them unhappy with the pols and cutting spending makes the recipients or beneficiaries of said monies unhappy. So what's a pol to do? The folks who paid his way into office want less taxes and mo' money and the voters want the same. There's not enough to go around so the pol does the same thing the consumer has picked up in the last few years, he whips out the gold card and makes up the difference between his means and his wants.

The French you will have always

A sampling of the deliciousness over at First Things. You really should read the whole thing, it's just delightful.

Be nice to the French, they feel so very misunderstood. That is kindly advice, and you should get started on it tomorrow. Meanwhile a friend sends a sampler of observations to be enjoyed before going on the wagon:

“France has neither winter nor summer nor morals. Apart from these drawbacks it is a fine country. France has usually been governed by prostitutes.”
—Mark Twain
......
“Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without your accordion.”
—Norman Schwartzkopf
......
“Only thing worse than a Frenchman is a Frenchman who lives in Canada.”
—Ted Nugent

“The favorite bumper sticker in Washington now is one that says ‘First Iraq, then France.’”
—Tom Brokaw
......
“It is important to remember that the French have always been there when they needed us.”
—Alan Kent
......
“Somebody was telling me about the French Army rifle that was being advertised on eBay the other day—the description was, ‘Never shot. Dropped once.’”
—Rep. Roy Blunt (MO)
......
The AP and UPI reported that the French government announced after the London bombings that it has raised its terror alert level from Run to Hide. The only two higher levels in France are Surrender and Collaborate. The rise in the alert level was precipitated by a recent fire which destroyed France’s white flag factory, effectively disabling their military.

French Ban Fireworks at Euro Disney (AP)
Paris, March 5, 2003
The French government announced today that it is imposing a ban on the use of fireworks at Euro Disney. The decision comes the day after a nightly fireworks display at the park, located just 30 miles outside of Paris, caused the soldiers at a nearby French Army garrison to surrender to a group of Czech tourists.

Adding to Mr. Nugent's remarks, the only thing worse than a Quebecois is one driving a truck in the U.S.. When a reefer blows by me doing 20 over the limit, tailgating, and making lane changes apparently without mirror use it is almost always a member of the Oppressed French minority .

Truth

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (translated into English by Yermolai Solzhfnitsyn) Bring God back into Politics
Hat tip to Brothers Judd

It is up to us to stop seeing Progress (which cannot be stopped by anyone or anything) as a stream of unlimited blessings, and to view it rather as a gift from on high, sent down for an extremely intricate trial of our free will.

The gifts of the telephone and the television, for instance, when used without moderation, have fragmented the wholeness of our time, jerking us from the natural flow of our life. The gift of lengthened life expectancy has, as one of its consequences, made the elder generation into a burden for its children, while dooming the former to a lingering loneliness, to abandonment in old age by loved ones, and to an irreparable rift from the joy of passing on their experience to the young.

Horizontal ties between people are being severed as well. With all the seeming effervescence of political and social life, alienation and apathy toward others have grow stronger in human relations. Consumed in their pursuit of material interests, people find only an overwhelming loneliness. (It is this that gave rise to the howl of existentialism.) We must not simply lose ourselves in the mechanical flow of Progress, but strive to harness it in the interests of the human spirit; not to become the mere playthings of Progress, but rather to seek or expand ways of directing its might toward the perpetration of good.

Progress was understood to be a shining and unswerving vector, but it turned out to be a complex and twisted curve, which has once more brought us back to the very same eternal questions which had loomed in earlier times, except that then facing these questions was easier for a less distracted, less disconnected mankind.

The human soul , or if you prefer the human animal, is still vexed by the same torments in the 21st Century as the 17th, only we now have more ways to distract ourselves from reality. Of course a lifetime passes all too quickly in the the blaze of pixels and wall of sound we are immersed in every day. Perhaps our unwillingness or inability to face the reality of the human existence is why so little great writing graces our age. It is not just that our skill with words has succumbed to our Instant Message and eMail style of communication, it is that our connection to the deepest needs and failings of humanity is crowded out by the historically incredible lives we live today. We not only cannot write , more critically we have nothing to write [i}about[/i]

Good Deal

Atlanta Injury Law Blog:Court orders stronger training standards for commercial truck drivers

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s regulations governing minimum standards for entry-level truck driver training are inadequate based on the record developed during the rulemaking process, a federal appeals court ruled today.

The minimum requirements adopted last May by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration involve only classroom education and in only four areas: medical qualification and drug and alcohol testing; hours-of-service regulations; wellness; and whistleblower protection.

The court said: “The (FMCSR staff's) Adequacy Report determined that effective training for CMV drivers required practical, on-the-road instruction on how to operate a heavy vehicle. But FMCSA ignored this evidence and opted for a program that focuses on areas unrelated to the practical demands of operating a commercial motor vehicle.”

Most of the time Public Citizen and their ilk are just bozos when it comes to trucking, but this is a case where they are on the side of the angels. The FMCSA seems to have set a pattern of doing the very least possible, or less, and only after being sued into action. There has to be a happy medium between trying to put the industry under and giving it carte blanche. The industry is right that few folks want to be without income for a couple of months while they train, but that doesn't outweigh highway safety (and getting drivers fully trained might cut down on the number of new drivers who quit or fail because of accidents or needless tickets.

Don't roll, roll, roll your truck...

eTrucker: Wide single tires may lower rollover risk

One of the study leaders, H.E. "Bill" Knee, said researchers put a tractor-trailer with traditional duals, dynamic sensors and outriggers through a series of tests to emulate three events that lead to rollovers: evasive maneuvers, driving around curves with a constant radius, and running off the road. The same tractor-trailer was re-equipped with singles and a wider slider trailer suspension in various configurations and put through the same paces.

The result? In most cases, new generation single tires and slider suspensions reduced rollover propensity, at least in van operations. In evasive maneuvers, the new-generation combination decreased the maximum trailer roll angle per lateral acceleration ratio by 45 percent, a significant amount, Knee said.

******

Some anomalies need further investigation, Knee said. For example, a truck equipped with duals coupled to a trailer equipped with singles and a wider slider suspension performed best in the evasive maneuver test. That may have something to do with driver feel from having dual tires on the tractor, Knee said.

My theory would be that the tractor's suspension width did not change and so the wide based singles didn't have much of a positive effect. Now what would be real interesting would be to see a tractor custom built with wider rear suspension attachment points and Super Singles, my hunch is it would perform very well. Of course another theory could be that the tractor suspension/ tread width is a relatively unimportant rollover factor, since the typical turn rollover starts with the trailer tandems tipping and then the trailer pulls the truck over.

But do they know where the money comes from?

Univ. of Kansas Takes Up Creation Debate

LAWRENCE, Kan. - Creationism and intelligent design are going to be studied at the University of Kansas, but not in the way advocated by opponents of the theory of evolution.

A course being offered next semester by the university religious studies department is titled "Special Topics in Religion: Intelligent Design, Creationism and other Religious Mythologies."

"The KU faculty has had enough," said Paul Mirecki, department chairman.

"Creationism is mythology," Mirecki said. "Intelligent design is mythology. It's not science. They try to make it sound like science. It clearly is not."

Earlier this month, the state Board of Education adopted new science teaching standards that treat evolution as a flawed theory, defying the view of science groups.

The Universities go out of their way to belittle the folks who ultimately pay the bills and wonder why they can't get any traction in the funding debates. Talk about willful ignorance about how the world works.

But the FMCSA said it was safe!

Risk Higher for Truckers in the 11th Hour

The crash risk for truck drivers in the last hour of a now legal 11-hour day behind the wheel is more than three times higher than during the first hour, a Penn State research team has found.
For 60 years, federal rules limited truckers to driving 10 consecutive hours. However, in January 2004, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration raised the limit to 11 hours and reaffirmed the change in October this year.
Dr. Paul Jovanis, professor of civil engineering who led the Penn State study, says, "Our analysis of data from three national trucking companies during normal operations in 2004 shows that the crash risk is statistically similar for the first six hours of driving and then increases in significant steps thereafter. The 11th hour has a crash risk more than three times the first hour."
.........
Jovanis notes, "Our findings, using data from 2004 and from the 1980s, establish a consistent pattern of increased crash risk with hours driving, particularly in the 9th, 10th and 11th hours."
In their most recent study, the researchers also found that multi-day driving schedules, over 7 days, were associated with significant crash risk increases similar in magnitude to extended driving time.
In addition, separate analyses of the records of drivers who operate trucks that have sleeping compartments with those that don't have sleeping compartments show that there is a strong association of crash risk and driving time for sleeper operations, especially in the 8th, 10th and 11th hours. Non-sleeper operations associate crash risk with multi-day driving somewhat more strongly than with driving time.
Jovanis says, "Considered as a whole, these results reveal important differences in crash risk associated with the two different types of trucking operations. One tentative conclusion is that the rigors of sleeper operations appear to result in a greater decline in performance at extended driving hours than for comparable non-sleeper operations."
The study was supported by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) but represents only the views of the authors.

Amazing that working more hours makes you more tired.....

Interesting tidbits from the Fuel Economy front

Transport News Network (UK): Happy Trucking

A further enhancement of the I-Shift box is Eco-roll. With cruise control selected, if the truck is maintaining the set speed under the effects of gravity, Eco-roll will disengage the drive to the rear bogie allowing the engine revs to drop to tick-over. If power is required, the drive instantly re-engages and revs zip back up. The same happens if the brakes are applied or the set retardation speed is exceeded. The system is designed to save fuel and reduce wear and tear.
............
The Scania P340 8x4 tested in August had a nine-speed manual box and although it was noticeably slower around our route it did return a route average of 9.21mpg.

The truck tested here, with its 12-speed I-shift box, returned 8.83mpg as an overall average, the lowest sectional figure being 6.98mpg recorded on the testing A339 rural route between Basingstoke and the A34 at Tothill. But 7mpg is not bad in the heavy going and was compensated for by a high of 9.42mpg on the motorway.

So on balance, driving as ever for economy, we achieved better fuel results from a slightly lower powered manual 32-tonner but paid the penalty in terms of journey time; so critical for most tipper operators. But if your drivers are heavy with the right boot, racing to get in that extra load, we believe the evidence is now overwhelmingly in favour of the auto. Recent reports that Summerfield has asked Volvo to lock out the manual override on its I-Shift-equipped trucks speak volumes. In fuel economy terms, this truck's performance at the pumps is among the best we have encountered from an automatic, which must make it a serious contender for consideration.

Just a word about Eco-roll. We had no way here of proving the benefits of this system, but in theory it saves fuel. It takes time to feel comfortable with it because we are all taught never to free wheel in a heavy goods vehicle. Well Eco-roll does not actually take the truck out of gear, it electronically disconnects the drive, allowing the engine revolutions to return to idle. During our test it activated numerous times on long gentle descents - where braking or retardation is required it will not function - so if it contributed to our average fuel consumption figure all well and good. But our jury is out, awaiting more evidence.

I have always daydreamed about replacing the Jake brake with a regen braking system (so the job of holding the truck back is spread over all the wheels rather than just the drive axle(s) and some of the "G-Force" can be recovered for climbing the next hill. Batteries and many other parts of the tech are not ready for prime time yet. But this system, obviously, can be implemented today and there are no energy losses from energy conversion and storage.

Daimler Chrysler: Sustainability

Predictive Cruise Control.
One particularly intelligent means of saving fuel is currently being tested by our researchers in the USA. Back in 2002, they began taking a closer look at the potential of existing cruise control systems in Freightliner’s heavy trucks and tractor vehicles, searching for ways to combine the comfort already provided by electronic systems with fuel-saving control programs. The outcome of their efforts is “Predictive Cruise Control” (PCC), a cruise control system that not only maintains a preset speed, but also regulates the engine by assessing driving conditions ahead and adjusting speed accordingly, delivering significant fuel savings. The benefits are clear on up- and downhill routes, for example. At the beginning of an upgrade, a conventional cruise control system would try to compensate for the truck’s deceleration by boosting engine output to the maximum. Then, on the downgrade the system would have to shift down drastically to prevent the truck from rolling too fast. PCC instead makes optimum use of the truck’s kinetic energy by allowing it to build up momentum before the hill and then, at the top, gearing down even further in anticipation of the truck’s rapid acceleration as it moves downhill. The PCC computer can do all this because it has been fed the topographical data for the route and, thanks to the GPS navigation system, also knows the truck’s precise position. Initial tests have confirmed the research engineers’ estimates: Depending on the specific route, PCC can bring fuel savings of two percent or more.

Hopefully this will come to fruition. of course while you are plotting all the topographical features, why not put speed limits in the system as well. It wouldn't be too much of a reach to do the state/province level even if one didn't go to a road by road system. Many downgrades have much lower speed limits for trucks, perhaps those could be hard coded in.

Fleet Owner:maximizing MPG

“Eight or nine years ago, the thermal efficiency of a heavy-truck diesel engine was around 54%. Now, with the introduction of EGR [exhaust gas recirculation] and Caterpillar's ACERT [advanced combustion emission reduction technology] systems, engine thermal efficiency is down to 40%,” he explains. “That all translates into reduced mpg for heavy trucks.”

According to Routbort, “The main goal of the MET [MorElectric Truck] program is energy security. Today we're importing 53% of our oil; and based on current trends, we'll be importing 68% by 2025. Of the current $540-billion U.S. trade deficit, 22% is for oil expenditures alone. That's a lot of capital going overseas to pay for oil,” he says.

Of the 22-million barrels of oil consumed in the U.S. every day, two-thirds of it, or 13-million barrels a day (b/d) is used for transportation, with trucks burning 8-million b/d in their fuel tanks. DOE trend lines indicate that by 2025, transportation demand for oil will top 18-million b/d, with trucking consuming 12-million b/d.

That's why Routbort is so enthusiastic about the potential benefits of the MET project. “From a global standpoint, the technologies developed in this project can help reduce our reliance on imported oil, contribute to emissions reduction, and from a trucking perspective, position the industry to remain competitive,” he says.

Launched in 2000, the MET program represents a joint effort between DOE and private industry to reduce parasitic loads on heavy truck engines. Caterpillar provided engine technology, mechanical design, electronics, controls and overall system integration; Kenworth supplied a T-2000 Class 8 truck; Emerson offered electric motor and power electronics knowledge; and Engineered Machined Products developed electrically-driven water and oil pumps According to Routbort, the key to the program is the use of electrical power to enable a variety of truck systems to operate independently of the engine. Specifically, the heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system, brake air compressor, and oil and water pumps on the MET vehicle all operate on electricity. The accessories are powered by a generator inside the flywheel housing, which also serves as the starter motor, along with an auxiliary power unit (APU) and shore power plug-in capability.

Preliminary results indicate a 2% decrease in over-the-road fuel consumption for the MET test vehicle and 6% during engine idling. This means a saving of more than $2,000 annually per truck in fuel and engine maintenance costs.

So one could say, use a "smart" GPS integrated cruise control to anticipate which hills could be "coated" down, the electronic driveline disconnect kicks in at the top of the hills, and the engine cut off, while the Morelectric system keeps the power steering, cooling, HVAC, and air compressor running. Near the bottom of the hill or if the driver applies the brakes the engine is restarted and revved to the appropriate place to pull the next hill or take a downshift. There are a lot of good ideas out there, they just need to be put together into solutions for the industry and society.

Busloads of trouble

San Antonio Express-News:Fatal Bus Fire Raises Accountability Issues

Last month's bus fire that killed 23 elderly nursing home patients who were being evacuated from Houston to escape Hurricane Rita left plenty of blame to go around.
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Global Limo Inc. was allowed to continue operations despite the fact that its drivers had been found in violation of federal safety regulations numerous times in the past two years. Gutierrez alone had been stopped by DPS troopers three times in the seven months before the accident, the Washington Post reported.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, an arm of the U.S. Transportation Department, also failed in its job to protect the public from unsafe transportation companies.

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It is inexcusable that federal agents would allow Global to maintain a satisfactory rating although, media reports revealed, its driver safety record was 97 on a 100-point scale — with 100 being the worst.

After the bus fire, a review of Global's fleet by federal inspectors found 168 violations of federal safety regulations, the majority relating to upkeep of its vehicles, according to the Washington Post. The review prompted federal regulators to shut down the company after it was deemed a hazard to the public.

The U of Wi (Eau Claire) Spectator

The National Transportation Safety Board's investigation into the Oct. 16 bus crash that killed five and injured 30 found that two of the six brakes on the bus were out of adjustment.

Under these conditions, Lauren Peduzzi, a spokesperson for the NTSB, said the bus should not have been on the road because it violated the state's Department of Transportation regulations and raised safety issues.

"That would have been enough to place the bus out of service," Peduzzi said. "You never want a bus on the road (in those conditions)."

The NTSB also found the bus driver, Paul Rasmus, 78, of Chippewa Falls, was not wearing his eyeglasses during the crash, despite the requirement on his driver's license.

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Even with these findings, however, Peduzzi said there still is not enough evidence to prove these factors could have prevented the crash.

"We have to figure out at what point was the (the truck) visible to the driver and, based on that, how much reaction time he would have had and how long it would have taken him to stop," she said.

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It's just sad.

Global Limo had an unlicensed driver at the wheel of a very poorly maintained Bus.

A trucker with a Suspended License (granted it was suspended for a bad check, but the underlying offense 72 in a 55 [if in a commercial vehicle] is a suspension offense for a CDL driver in Indiana) runs off the road and runs along the shoulder for several hundred feet before jackknifing (and claims he wasn't asleep) and is struck by a bus with out of adjustment brakes driven by a guy who isn't wearing his glasses.

Brakes being out of adjustment is a common problem in Air Brakes. Late Model Air Brake Equipped Vehicles are equipped with automatic slack adjusters but those only work when there is a firm application of the brakes, if you are a cautious driver and do not do a lot of panic brake applications (and don't frequently do a "pump down" of the brake system) then they may not be in adjustment when you need them. There's lots of Safety Gear out there but it's only as good as it is maintained.

What happened to the Democrats

Commonweal:Goodbye Catholics

But nothing Dutton did was as influential and far-reaching as his work on a Democratic commission that ran from 1969 to 1972. Better known as the McGovern Commission, for its chairman, Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, the twenty-eight-member panel became the vehicle by which a handful of antiwar liberals revolutionized the Democratic Party. Of this group, Dutton emerged as the chief designer and builder. His goal was nothing less than to end the New Deal coalition, the electoral alliance that had supported the party since 1932 around a broad working-class agenda. In its place, Dutton sought to build a “loose peace constituency,” a collection of groups opposed to the Vietnam War and more generally the military-industrial complex. To this end, Dutton recognized that Democrats would need to appeal to three new constituencies-young people, college-educated suburbanites, and feminists-while ceasing to woo two old ones-Catholics and working-class whites. As it turned out, the McGovern Commission became Dutton’s unlikely vehicle for renovating the party’s coalition. He used one proposal to engineer the emerging feminist movement into the Democratic fold. He used other measures to, in effect, help secular, educated elites wrest the party machinery from state and big-city bosses.
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As Greenberg concluded about the 2004 election, “The reason for the defection of these more blue-collar Democrats is rooted in their conservative views on cultural issues. Culturally, the defectors differ from other Democrats on abortion, gay marriage, and especially the National Rifle Association, the second biggest area of difference.”

Dutton, though a supporter of his loose peace constituency and the McGovern Commission to the end, harbored few illusions about them. “It might not have been politically shrewd,” he acknowledged to me in two interviews. “What surprised me is that young people didn’t vote until they were thirty-five years old. And black leaders talked a good game [about delivering the black vote], but they didn’t walk a good game.” Dutton, for all his errors in judgment, maintained a refreshing and admirable intellectual honesty. He might have been the shortsighted designer and builder of the modern Democratic Party, but he was hardly one of the bumbling mechanics who run it today.

It'd be nice if someone would drop Thomas Frank a line. The Democrats have long ceased being interested in the plight of working people. When you are convinced that most working people are lazy racist slobs (witness the typical sitcom's male lead) you aren't very motivated to do anything to help them. Of course, with the decline of the middle class we're all going down the tubes eventually. Nobody makes a good living in a subsistence economy, even the rich get poorer eventually. It's just the working stiffs who are feeling the first effects.

Evening in America?

OpinionJournal-Peggy Noonan:A Separate Peace

I think there is an unspoken subtext in our national political culture right now. In fact I think it's a subtext to our society. I think that a lot of people are carrying around in their heads, unarticulated and even in some cases unnoticed, a sense that the wheels are coming off the trolley and the trolley off the tracks. That in some deep and fundamental way things have broken down and can't be fixed, or won't be fixed any time soon. That our pollsters are preoccupied with "right track" and "wrong track" but missing the number of people who think the answer to "How are things going in America?" is "Off the tracks and hurtling forward, toward an unknown destination."
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And some--well, I will mention and end with America's elites. Our recent debate about elites has had to do with whether opposition to Harriet Miers is elitist, but I don't think that's our elites' problem.

This is. Our elites, our educated and successful professionals, are the ones who are supposed to dig us out and lead us. I refer specifically to the elites of journalism and politics, the elites of the Hill and at Foggy Bottom and the agencies, the elites of our state capitals, the rich and accomplished and successful of Washington, and elsewhere. I have a nagging sense, and think I have accurately observed, that many of these people have made a separate peace. That they're living their lives and taking their pleasures and pursuing their agendas; that they're going forward each day with the knowledge, which they hold more securely and with greater reason than nonelites, that the wheels are off the trolley and the trolley's off the tracks, and with a conviction, a certainty, that there is nothing they can do about it.

I suspect that history, including great historical novelists of the future, will look back and see that many of our elites simply decided to enjoy their lives while they waited for the next chapter of trouble. And that they consciously, or unconsciously, took grim comfort in this thought: I got mine. Which is what the separate peace comes down to, "I got mine, you get yours."

You're a lobbyist or a senator or a cabinet chief, you're an editor at a paper or a green-room schmoozer, you're a doctor or lawyer or Indian chief, and you're making your life a little fortress. That's what I think a lot of the elites are up to.

Our Friends the Chinese

Washington Times:Four Arrests linked to Spy Ring

Four persons arrested in Los Angeles are part of a Chinese intelligence-gathering ring, federal investigators said, and the suspects caused serious compromises for 15 years to major U.S. weapons systems, including submarines and warships.
U.S. intelligence and security officials said the case remains under investigation but that it could prove to be among the most damaging spy cases since the 1985 one of John A. Walker Jr., who passed Navy communication codes to Moscow for 22 years.
The Los Angeles spy ring has operated since 1990 and has funneled technology and military secrets to China in the form of documents and computer disks, officials close to the case said.
The ring was led by Chi Mak and his wife, Rebecca Laiwah Chiu, along with Mr. Chi's brother, Tai Wang Mak, and his wife, Fuk Heung Li, officials said.
Key compromises uncovered so far include sensitive data on Aegis battle management systems that are the core of U.S. Navy destroyers and cruisers.
China covertly obtained the Aegis technology and earlier this year deployed its first Aegis warship, code-named Magic Shield, intelligence officials have said.
The Chinese also obtained sensitive data on U.S. submarines, including classified details related to the new Virginia-class attack submarines.
Officials said based on a preliminary assessment, China now will be able to track U.S. submarines, a compromise that potentially could be devastating if the United States enters a conflict with China in defending Taiwan.
Mr. Chi, an electrical engineer, also had access to details on U.S. aircraft carriers and once was aboard the USS Stennis. A Pentagon report made public earlier this year said China's military is building up capabilities to attack U.S. aircraft carriers.

Hang 'em high
Nice to know we've blithely placed our economic future in China's ever lovin' hands.

Does the NY Times have a fact checker?

NY Times:Wal-Mart to seek Energy Savings

Embracing energy-conscious and environmentally conscious goals will help both the company's bottom line and its customers' needs, H. Lee Scott said in an interview Monday.
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His goals, he said, are to invest $500 million in technologies that will reduce greenhouse gases from stores and distribution centers by 20 percent over the next seven years; increase the fuel efficiency of the truck fleet by 25 percent over the next three years and double it within 10 years, and design a new store within four years that is at least 25 percent more energy-efficient.
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The trucks in Wal-Mart's fleet, the nation's largest, have a fuel efficiency of about 6.5 miles per gallon. "They can do at least 13," said Amory Lovins, chief executive of the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit organization that serves as a consultant to companies on energy efficiency and has performed work for Wal-Mart. "They are a big enough buyer to get truck suppliers' undivided attention."

Transport Topics News: Wal-Mart Reportedly Set to Improve Fleet Efficiency

Wal-Mart is ranked No. 2 on the Transport Topics 100 listing of private North American carriers. According to company data, it has about 6,750 trucks and 44,500 trailers.

The largest truckload for hire carrier (Schneider National) Operates about twice as many tractors (14,000) and a few thousand more trailers (48.000 trailers and containers). The largest private package carrier (United Parcel Service) operates more than 10,000 tractors and 80,000 trailers (plus over 60,000 smaller trucks). The largest Less than truckload carrier (Yellow Roadway) uses more than 17,000 tractors and 88,000 trailers. In 2005 over 200,000 Class 8 trucks will be sold in the United States. The top 100 for hire carriers according to Transport Topics operate over 350,000 trucks. There are over 20 million Commercial trucks in the US.

Wal Mart is a big fish, but in a giant pond. Fuel is the second largest cost to motor carriers after labor. If the market has not moved trucks to better fuel economy how is a Wal Mart going to move it with its control of less than 1% of the market?

GM and the independent trucker

GM has been in the news a lot lately. GMs sales have been in the dumps for many years. Today they have to use incentives to move cars at a loss. Why do they keep making more cars than they can move at a profit? Because they have a lot of fixed costs that they can't get rid of. Under their contracts with the UAW they have to keep paying workers for the duration of the contract as well as the benefits and pensions for former workers have to be paid. So in order to keep the money flowing they have to move metal even if they lose money on the deal, sort of a slow motion Ponzi scheme. Your money for your new GM car is in part paying the costs for the cars GM sold years ago.

How does this tie into truckers? Independent Truckers have high fixed costs: truck payments (typically over $1k/month), insurance, plates and permits. The variable costs aren't cheap either (70-100 gallons of fuel a day at over $3 a pop), tolls (over $40 for a truck to get across Chicago), and an engine overhaul runs about what you'd pay for a decent used car. Yet they still run for less than their true costs. Why? the same reason GM does what it does. If they stop they will be steamrolled by their fixed costs. Freightliner doesn't care if you're making money, they just want their payment on the due date. The Independent doesn't want to lose their business that they have invested years in building so they just keep running faster on the treadmill. Of course sooner or later it will catch you, hence Delphi and the record truck repossessions the last two years.