January 26, 2007: While China is shipping the same amount of oil to North Korea, in 2006, as it did in 2005, food exports are down by about half (some 210,000 tons less). A lot less food is getting into North Korea, and because last years crops were below average, the population is expected to come through this Winter in very bad shape. Planners in South Korea now fear a flood of three million starving refugees (headed into China and South Korea), if the North Korean government collapses in the near future. Plans are being made on how to deal with such large numbers of malnourished refugees.
January 22, 2007: In response to U.S. accusations, the UN has halted transfers of hard currency to North Korea, and begun an audit of how UN aid money is spent in North Korea........
January 21, 2007: South Korean and American commanders are beginning to make plans for the possible collapse of the North Korean government. There is increasing Chinese diplomatic and political activity inside North Korea, and many rumors that officers from the North Korean security forces, backed by China, are plotting to overthrow the government. Interestingly, even with all these stories going around, there have been no arrests in the north. There is, however, a growing unease on the streets, among the North Korean people......
Even in North Korea implodes relatively peacefully, dealing with refugee flows (not to mention trying to make sure bad stuff doesn't leave the country) is going to be a massive undertaking. If Kim goes for broke and attacks South Korea or if the country falls into Civil war then it will be a foreign policy and military crisis. The South Koreans and the Forces in Theater can probably stop the Norks but there isn't much of calvary to ride over the horizon. Dealing with a counter-insurgency does not prepare troops or their leaders for more conventional warfare as Israel learned to its detriment in Lebanon.
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